BLS Projections Show Growing Demand for Home Care

New federal data confirm what home care providers see every day: Demand for care in the home is set to skyrocket over the next decade. 

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ has released its Employment Projections for 2025-2035, an annual look at how cross-sector employment will change in 10 years. BLS says the projections reflect long-term trends rather than precise predictions, based on demographic shifts, technology and economic conditions. 
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For home care, the trend is clear. BLS projects the private healthcare and social assistance sector will add more than 2.2 million jobs between 2025 and 2035, more than any other major industry. That sector alone is expected to account for about 37% of all new jobs created nationwide during the decade, driven largely by an aging population and rising rates of chronic health conditions. 

Within that sector, home-based care stands out further. The BLS category "services for the elderly and persons with disabilities" is projected to add about 625,400 jobs by 2035, more than any other detailed industry in the country, with a growth rate topping 22%. BLS specifically cited "increased demand for home-based care" as a driver of that growth. 

The occupational data tell a similar story. BLS projects employment of home health and personal care aides will grow 18% from 2025 to 2035, compared with 3.5% growth projected for the U.S. economy as a whole. That translates to about 847,300 additional caregiver jobs over the decade, plus roughly 760,500 annual openings as employers hire for new positions and replace workers who leave the field. 

BLS ties this demand directly to the country's changing demographics, noting that an aging population is expected to increase the need for healthcare and social services, including home health and personal care. 
For HCAOA members, the projections underscore both the opportunity and the challenge ahead. They confirm the essential role home care will play in meeting the needs of older adults and people with disabilities. Meeting that demand will require sustained attention to the workforce policies that determine whether providers can recruit, retain and support enough caregivers. 

The projections add another authoritative data point to the message HCAOA continues to bring to policymakers: The country will need substantially more home care in the years ahead, and public policy must help build the workforce to provide it. 

Read the full BLS Employment Projections news release.